In their opening game of the Women's T20 World Cup 2024, India lost to New Zealand by 58 runs, which made it difficult for them to get to the semi-finals. In their second match against Pakistan, they won by six wickets with seven balls remaining, but it was not enough to make up for the significant defeat, and now they have a net run rate of -1.217. Only Sri Lanka, who have lost two games, is lower on the points table than India, who has the second-worst NRR in group A.
India can still advance to the tournament's semifinals, though. However, they will require some luck because, barring other favorable outcomes, they would not guarantee a spot in the last four even if they win their final two games against Sri Lanka and the reigning champions, Australia.
India's simplest route to the semi-final is to win both of their remaining games and hope that Pakistan and New Zealand lose at least one of their final two games. If Australia loses their next two games (against India and Pakistan), India can advance with six points. Then, between Pakistan and New Zealand, only one other side can reach six points. Sri Lanka can only get four points if they have not won either of their first two games.
It is also feasible for Australia, New Zealand, and India to tie each other on six points. With a crushing 60-run defeat to Australia, New Zealand has somewhat aided India's case; their NRR has also suffered and fallen into the negatives. If India bats first against Sri Lanka on Wednesday, they must win by a margin of at least 45 runs to overtake New Zealand's current NRR.
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Depending on what they are chasing, India will need to reach Sri Lanka's target with roughly 46 balls remaining if they field first. These figures are still estimates, though, as New Zealand still has two games to raise their NRR. They also benefit from playing their last league game after India has finished theirs. So, if it comes down to it, they will know exactly what is expected of them in their last league game against Pakistan.
Even if India wins just one of their final two games, they might still qualify with just four points, although at this moment, it seems quite doubtful due to their dismal NRR. If they defeat Australia and defeat Sri Lanka, they might end up tied with two or three other teams on four points. Even a five-way tie on four points is feasible if they defeat Australia but lose to Sri Lanka.
However, winning their final two games and hoping for favorable outcomes is the best-case scenario for India.