The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is ESPN's NBA analytics superpower. Though not flawless, the superhero is more adept at predicting the future than the typical guy performing clicker finger repetitions on League Pass. It observes the quality of teams in the past, their evolution, and the players they must use. Depending on the players in the game, it adapts to the teams that played better or worse.
The Memphis Grizzlies, for instance, did poorly last season with Ja Morant playing just nine games and the injury-plagued squad providing plenty of minutes to players who will not get them this season, according to the BPI. The anticipated starters for this season Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, and Zach Edey played in 137 NBA games last season, averaging 27 games per player, which also happens to be the number of games Memphis won.
The BPI believes they have a 69% probability of making the playoffs in the extremely competitive Western Conference because the seasoned players are back and Edey looked like a Summer League Rookie of the Year contender.
Like everyone else, the BPI finds it difficult to predict injuries. The BPI is a little wary of it since past injuries are the strongest indicator of future ailments, so it might happen again in Memphis. The BPI does not think any team will win 60 games this season, which is one of the reasons why elite teams not just Memphis tend to slide toward 41 wins.
The BPI also implies that teams that finished last season at the bottom actually compete and don't... umm, go into development mode. Because they believe they will play players like Ben Simmons or Bojan Bogdanovic over young Noah Clowney, the BPI projects teams like the Brooklyn Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, and Washington Wizards higher than most projection systems.
Or, in the Wizards' example, Jerami Grant over Scoot Henderson in Portland, or Malcolm Brogdon over Bilal Coulibaly, a second-year forward.
However, as the season goes on, the BPI will change.
After introducing ourselves, let us discuss the top-party issues that the BPI is capable of handling.
The Milwaukee Bucks had the greatest title odds last season, according to the BPI, with a 21% chance of winning the championship. It appreciated the skillful pairing of guard Damian Lillard with forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. But it couldn't fully account for the coaching soap opera that played out (it doesn't really watch soap operas).
The Celtics have a league-high 26% probability of winning the NBA title again this year, according to the BPI. It hopes there will not be any soap operas there because it really likes them. Those who criticized coach Joe Mazzulla's actions the previous season had to remain silent during Boston's successful run because the team had talent at every position last season.
Although the BPI does not directly see the specifics going through Mazzulla's mind, it perceives enough of them to believe that they will result in the raising of the 19th banner in Boston.
However, there are real rivals to the Celtics. Although the Philadelphia 76ers have improved, it is always unclear if Joel Embiid, an All-Star big man, can continue to play after playing just 1,309 minutes in 39 games the previous season.
If he does not, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George offer a significant safety net. (Those of us who constructed the BPI to forecast the future remain rather dubious about its capacity to forecast the effects of Embiid's health. We will talk more about that in a later section.)
The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their youthful, talented nucleus of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, are the BPI's favorite team in the Western Conference. They were strong the previous season and should be even stronger this year.
Additionally, they acquired center Isaiah Hartenstein from New York, who performed admirably under the straightforward guidance of Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau. In terms of championship odds, the BPI concurs with ESPN BET's ranking of the Thunder second only to the Celtics.
Twelve of the top 18 teams by talent are in the West, according to the BPI's simulation of the season. This means that teams like LeBron James' Los Angeles Lakers and Kevin Durant's Phoenix Suns have a very slim chance of making the playoffs. At the moment, Memphis, Dallas, Denver, and Minnesota all have higher BPI predictions of qualifying for the playoffs.
Can the Mavericks return to the Finals with their new Big 3?The Mavericks, who have Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson on their roster, are among six clubs with three players who have had their careers selected to the All-NBA squad.
It does assist to have three stars or more. In the last 20 years, teams with four or more All-NBA players at the start of the season have won roughly 50 games on average. Teams with three won 47 games on average. Teams with two won 46 games on average. Teams with one, like Oklahoma City's team with Gilgeous-Alexander last season, which led the West with 57 victories, averaged 39 victories.
Although there is some variety, those averages typically support the concept. 57% of teams with three All-NBA players, like Dallas, failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs.
But Dallas is not like that, is it? Klay will see and make a lot of open looks, Kyrie is still the finest finishing guard we have ever seen, and Luka is still a young player. Thankfully, the BPI can identify these individuals and track their trends.
For the record, Philly has four players on the All-NBA Teams this season (you forgot about Embiid and George, but there are also reserves Andre Drummond and Kyle Lowry). The Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Sacramento Kings are the other three teams with an All-NBA trio, in addition to Dallas and Phoenix.
How do we feel about the Timberwolves and Knicks after their makeover?
Karl-Anthony Towns has joined the New York Knicks, in case you missed it. The Minnesota Timberwolves currently have Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle.
Before the trade, the BPI thought the Knicks had a solid chance of finishing in the top six in the playoffs.
The BPI then noticed the trade. And enjoyed it... at least for Minnesota. Both teams' odds of making the playoffs increased, but the Wolves' chances in the West increased from about 65% to 80%, while the Knicks' chances in the East barely increased to 65%. The Knicks' title odds dropped from 3% to 1%, while the Wolves went from 4% to 5%. The BPI actually does not think the Knicks have a very bright future.
The BPI does not think Towns is significantly superior to Randle or DiVincenzo, which explains why. While the Knicks acquired one good player who has averaged roughly 1,700 minutes over the previous five seasons, the Wolves acquired two players who contribute a good 4,000 minutes every season. Yes, we are aware that the BPI will most likely be jeered when it returns to Madison Square Garden.
Forecasting the top (and bottom) offensive and defensive teams in the NBAIn the world of NBA shooters today, defending involves a lot of running and talking. If there is a lack of communication, run more. Nowadays, the paint is frequently so open since the floor is so dispersed. Everybody is shooting. Even a 33% 3-point shot has a higher value than the majority of midrange shots. This indicates that the 3-point shot is incredibly unpredictable. On some evenings, they will fall.
And on certain occasions, like in Game 2 of their playoff series, the Celtics will shoot 35 of them, make eight, and lose to the Cavaliers by 24. After that, Mazzulla will be the target of doomsayers for a few days. The BPI predicts that offenses and defenses will be a little closer together while acknowledging the randomness of threes. Either that or it is futilely attempting to predict which teams' shots will fall reliably this season.
If the former, the Celtics, Thunder, 76ers, Mavericks, and Pacers are projected to be the top five offensive teams per the BPI. Last season, the Celtics, Pacers, and Thunder were all present, but George propels Philadelphia into the top division. And Dallas is there with two rim-scaring big men and three All-NBA players.
San Antonio, Portland, and Detroit are all repeats among the BPI's lowest five offensive teams. In exchange for strengthened backboards to withstand all the clanking, Washington gave away its top 3-point shooter, Tyus Jones, and its third-best 3-point shooter, Deni Avdija, just missed it the previous season.The BPI predicts that Oklahoma City and Minnesota will reenter the top five on defense. Memphis boasts Marcus Smart and Jaren Jackson Jr., and its positive health outlook places it in the top five. George deserves another thank you from Philly for including it here. It makes sense that Cleveland is in the top five this season after finishing first in the previous one.
The Rudy Gobert-less Utah Jazz return to the BPI's weakest defensive teams, while the Wizards and Hawks also project to return in this division. Due in part to coach Rick Carlisle's apparent acceptance that this bunch enjoys speeding and... to hell with the repercussions, Indiana moves into the bottom five. They certainly could be better.
And Detroit comes next. Although the BPI believes I am off, I believe the young players will initially respond on that end because of the strong defense that new coach J.B. Bickerstaff helped build in Cleveland. The BPI actually believes I am off even if it does not recognize the coaches.